Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Americans could see significant tax refunds in early 2026, a development that could have major economic and political implications ahead of the midterm elections. Speaking about current Treasury projections, Bessent estimated that between $100 billion and $150 billion in tax refunds could be issued in the first quarter of 2026, with the money going directly back into household budgets.
According to Bessent, the refunds could total roughly $1,000 to $2,000 per household, depending on income levels and the number of workers in each family. He said the anticipated refunds reflect broader improvements in economic conditions and stronger fiscal performance.
Bessent also pointed to signs of accelerating economic growth, stating that the economy is expected to “start lifting off” in the first and second quarters of the year. The projections come as the Trump administration continues to argue that its economic policies are delivering tangible benefits to everyday Americans through lower inflation pressures, improving markets, and increased take-home income.
If the estimates hold, the influx of refunds would mark one of the largest refund periods in U.S. history and put additional cash into consumers’ hands as the 2026 election season approaches.
