A grim U.S. intelligence assessment is warning that Iran is unlikely to cave to President Donald Trump’s demands, even after a punishing new wave of American strikes and rising battlefield losses.
The warning comes as the White House postponed Trump’s planned trip to Dover Air Force Base for the dignified transfer of two U.S. soldiers killed in an Iranian attack in Jordan.
Trump had been scheduled to receive the remains of 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, who were killed during an attack on a U.S. air base in Jordan.
The ceremony was set for Tuesday but was postponed after their remains had not yet arrived at Dover, officials said.
The Pentagon also identified Sgt. Michael Emmanuel Swinton, 30, of Fayetteville, North Carolina, as the soldier killed during the controlled detonation of a downed Iranian drone at Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq.
American troop deaths in the war have now risen to 18, while nearly 100 U.S. troops have reportedly been injured in Iranian strikes on bases across the Middle East over the past two weeks.
U.S. intelligence analysts are warning Trump that Tehran is unlikely to soften its position or make nuclear concessions despite renewed American strikes on the regime’s military and infrastructure targets, according to The Washington Post.
❗️THIRD US Army soldier to be KILLED in action identified as 30-yo Sgt. Michael Swinton — NYP
He died during ‘CONTROLLED DETONATION’ of downed Iranian drone on Iraqi Erbil Air Base on July 19
The incident is under investigation https://t.co/yNEUU6R12Q pic.twitter.com/OJ87Yek1Q7
— RT Intl (@RT_on_X) July 21, 2026
Current and former intelligence officials told the outlet that Washington and Tehran appear stuck in a dangerous gray zone between peace and open-ended war.
The report also warned that critical U.S. munitions are growing scarce as the conflict drags on.
Iran has also escalated threats against Trump and his family, with billboards depicting their deaths appearing across Tehran.
Fighting reignited two weeks ago after ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran collapsed, triggering 10 consecutive nights of American strikes on regime targets.
The U.S. is trying to cripple Tehran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil.
Washington accused Iran of violating the memorandum of understanding by attacking oil tankers moving through the Persian Gulf.
The U.S. Navy has responded by reimposing a blockade on Iranian ports and seizing several Iranian ships.
Iran, meanwhile, has launched missile and drone attacks at Gulf nation water and power plants, expanding the war beyond military targets and directly threatening the infrastructure America’s allies rely on.
American bombardments have targeted Iranian command centers, air defenses, naval assets, coastal surveillance posts, and missile, drone and communications sites.
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have also threatened to open another front by imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia.
DAY 10: U.S. forces continue to strike Iran after the regime killed multiple American servicemembers during attacks over the weekend.
According to CENTCOM, the latest operation targeted Iranian military command centers, air defense systems, missile and drone launch sites, and… pic.twitter.com/fiuGDzZ1v0
— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 21, 2026
The militants are threatening the Bab al-Mandeb strait between the Arabian Peninsula and Africa, a vital route feeding shipping into the Suez Canal.
If the Houthis successfully close the waterway, it could have dire consequences for global trade.
The route carries roughly 12% of global commerce.
With the Strait of Hormuz already under severe pressure, closing Bab al-Mandeb would squeeze the second of the region’s two critical energy chokepoints.
Both the U.S. and Iran have signaled they are open to fresh negotiations, but no breakthrough has been reached.
More than 400 U.S. troops have been injured since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28.
Trump, speaking at Joint Base Andrews on Sunday night after attending the World Cup final, said the U.S. had ‘hit them very hard again’ in a fresh barrage launched to avenge the fallen soldiers.
The intelligence warning lands at a brutal moment for the White House.
Trump is pounding Iran harder, but U.S. officials reportedly do not believe Tehran is ready to give up its nuclear leverage.
The regime is absorbing strikes, threatening American leaders, menacing oil routes and leaning on its terror proxies to spread the pain.
That leaves Trump facing the same hard truth every president eventually learns about Iran: weakness invites chaos, but force does not always produce surrender overnight.
For now, American troops are paying the price while the mullahs dig in.
And if the leaked intelligence is right, this war may be far from over.
