The highly regarded Harvard CAPS/Harris poll for the month of August, which was released on Wednesday, found Republicans ahead of Democrats among likely midterm voters on the generic congressional ballot.
The survey, which has a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points, asked participants which party they would support if the congressional election were held today. In total, 51 percent of likely voters expressed support for the Republican Party while 49 percent said the same for Democrats. Among registered voters, the results were flipped, with 51 percent expressing support for Democrats and 49 percent backing Republicans.
When asked whether they planned to vote in the November elections, 69 percent of respondents indicated that they did. This includes 63 percent of Republicans, 57 percent of Democrats, and 38 percent of independents.
In addition, 46 percent of respondents said their midterm vote was already decided, 27 percent said they were leaning toward a candidate but could change their mind, and 19 percent remained undecided, including 28 percent of independents.
POLL: Will You Support Trump And His Candidates In The Midterms?
📊 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot
Registered voters
🟦 Democrats: 51% [+1]
🟥 Republicans: 49% [-1]
—
LIKELY Voters
🟥 Republicans: 51% [+2]
🟦 Democrats: 49% [-2]Harvard/Harris | 8/28-30 https://t.co/ldyECtmSvP pic.twitter.com/d1RWggV8f0
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 2, 2026
The same poll recorded President Trump’s job approval at 44 percent, up two points from July. Republican Party approval stood at 45 percent (up two points) and Democratic Party approval at 47 percent (up four points). Congressional approval was 34 percent.
Inflation and the economy remained the top voter concerns, though the share citing the economy as a leading issue declined three points from July while the share citing the U.S.-Iran conflict rose five points.
Harvard-Harris results on the generic ballot have fluctuated within a narrow range throughout 2026. The April survey found a 50–50 tie, while the May iteration found Democrats ahead 52–48 among likely voters.
The July survey showed Democrats ahead 51–49. The August likely-voter result therefore marks the first Republican lead recorded by this pollster in the current cycle.
While the August poll is welcome news for the GOP, polling averages compiled by other organizations continue to show a Democratic Party advantage. RealClearPolitics’ average of recent polls stands at Democrats 48.5 percent to Republicans 42.1 percent as of this report.
Generic-ballot questions measure party preference rather than candidate-specific races and historically correlate with the national House popular vote. Final 2022 results produced a Republican popular-vote edge of roughly three points after late-cycle polling averages had shown a smaller or mixed lead. The 2018 midterms produced a Democratic popular-vote advantage of more than eight points.
