With just five days remaining before the midterm elections, Republicans are facing a potentially significant setback in their battle to maintain control of the U.S. Senate as one of the country’s most closely watched election forecasts undergoes a dramatic last-minute adjustment.
The development comes as both parties pour resources into competitive races across the country, with Democrats attempting to capitalize on voter frustration over the economy and Republicans working to defend their narrow congressional majorities.
Several contests that initially appeared favorable to Republicans have become increasingly competitive, raising the stakes for President Donald Trump and GOP leaders heading into Tuesday’s elections.
On Thursday, Fox News officially moved South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up,” signaling that the traditionally conservative state could deliver one of the election’s biggest surprises.
The decision followed the release of a New York Times/Siena College poll showing Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews tied at 48 percent each.
The numbers represent an unexpected challenge for Republicans in a state Trump carried by nearly 18 percentage points during the 2024 presidential election.
Graham, the younger sister of the late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, was appointed to the seat following her brother’s death in July. She is now seeking a full six-year term against Andrews, a pediatrician who has focused her campaign on healthcare, abortion access and dissatisfaction with Washington.
The tightening race has prompted Trump to personally intervene, with the president scheduled to campaign Thursday in South Carolina’s Upstate region, where Graham previously struggled during her Republican primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman.
Republicans had already expressed concerns about the unexpectedly close contest before Fox News made its latest adjustment. The shift is particularly notable because South Carolina has remained a Republican stronghold in federal elections for decades.
South Carolina Democratic US Senate nominee Annie Andrews at a campaign event at Greenville Technical College in Greenville, South Carolina on May 11, 2026
However, the latest polling does not necessarily establish Andrews as the favorite. RealClearPolling’s average still gives Graham a narrow advantage of approximately 2.7 percentage points, illustrating just how competitive the race has become.
South Carolina is not the only state creating headaches for Republicans.
Fox News also moved Ohio’s Senate contest from “Toss-Up” to “Lean Democrat” after polling showed former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown gaining ground against Republican incumbent Jon Husted.
A recent Fox News survey placed Brown ahead by five points, 52 percent to 47 percent, potentially complicating the GOP’s path to maintaining its Senate majority.
Meanwhile, Mississippi’s Senate race was shifted from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican,” another indication that Democrats are making inroads in states that historically favor the GOP.
A particularly strong Democratic performance could give the party as many as 54 seats. Republicans, however, could retain control with as many as 52 seats if their candidates perform well in the remaining battlegrounds.
Because Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 Senate tie, Republicans need only 50 seats to maintain their majority.
