Texas Republicans have an encouraging sign heading into Election Day: A new analysis shows a sizable GOP advantage among a group of remaining voters who previously cast their ballots on Election Day.
Jason Corley, Quantus Insights’ lead pollster and election forecaster, examined voters who had not yet voted as of an Oct. 29 data pull and had voted on Election Day in 2022 or 2024.
The Republican advantage was especially pronounced among those who voted on Election Day in both years. Corley’s model classified 47% of that group as Republican and 27.2% as Democratic, a 19.8-percentage-point gap.
That points to a potentially favorable pool of voters still available to Republicans as Ken Paxton battles Democrat James Talarico for the Senate.
Republicans also led on turnout scores and prior primary participation in the broader group Corley examined.
Those modeled as Republicans had an average turnout score of 80.3, compared with 72.6 for Democrats. Prior primary participation stood at 53.6% for the Republican group and 44.5% for the Democratic group.
Across those remaining voters with Election Day participation in either year, the modeled breakdown was 37.1% Republican and 24.7% Democratic, with 38.2% in the remaining category.
Texas does not register voters by political party. Those classifications are modeled estimates, not party registration totals or a count of votes for either candidate.
The findings arrive as Quantus Insights’ latest statewide poll gives Paxton a narrow edge.
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The firm’s Oct. 26-28 survey of 1,221 likely voters puts Paxton at 48.7% and Talarico at 47.6%. Libertarian Ted Brown receives 1.4%, while 2.2% are undecided.
Paxton’s 1.1-point lead falls within what Quantus describes as an approximately 6.4-percentage-point margin of error for the difference between the candidates.
Quantus also had Paxton narrowly ahead in its Oct. 9-11 survey, when he led 47.2% to 46.7%. The small change between the polls does not establish a significant shift in the race.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 50.7% to 45.8% in the latest Quantus survey.
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Corley’s analysis offers a separate look at who remained available to vote, focusing on Texans with a history of Election Day participation. It does not establish how the entire remaining electorate will vote.
“This is not an Election Day projection. It describes who remains and their past voting habits. It does not tell us who will turn out, when they will vote, or which candidate they will support.”
For Republicans, the encouraging finding is the combination of a larger modeled presence, higher turnout scores and greater prior primary participation within the group Corley examined.
Whether those voters show up and back Paxton will help determine whether that potential advantage translates into an Election Day payoff.
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