A major Republican stronghold in Texas opened Election Day with nearly as many voters checking in during the first hour as in the 2024 presidential election, an encouraging early sign for the GOP.
Montgomery County recorded 5,908 check-ins between 7 and 8 a.m. Tuesday, according to its unofficial turnout tracker. During the same hour in 2024, the county recorded 6,451.
That puts Tuesday’s opening at 91.6% of the presidential-year pace, just 543 check-ins behind the election that sent President Donald Trump back to the White House.
For a midterm without Trump on the ballot, that is a substantial first-hour showing. And it is happening in a county where Republicans have an enormous advantage. Naturally, the betting markets reacted; in the first hour of voting, Governor Greg Abbott’s odds on Kalshi exploded by 6%.
Trump crushed Kamala Harris in Montgomery County in 2024, collecting 221,964 votes to her 82,277. He carried roughly 72.2% of the vote and finished ahead by 139,687 votes.
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The county north of Houston is a critical source of Republican margins. Strong participation there gives GOP candidates an opportunity to build a cushion against Democratic votes elsewhere in Texas.
Tuesday’s opening brought the county within 8.4% of its first-hour check-in count from the presidential election, giving Republicans a concrete sign of busy polls in deeply favorable territory.
The figures measure voter check-ins, not votes for a particular party. They remain unofficial, and the first hour alone cannot establish how the rest of Election Day will unfold.
But the early benchmark is clear: One of Texas’ biggest Trump strongholds opened the midterms at nearly presidential-election speed.
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