Democrats’ midterm gains have opened a path to fundamentally changing how America elects its president, potentially locking in the national popular vote winner through an interstate agreement.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would leave the Electoral College formally intact while changing how participating states award their votes. A member state could back one candidate at the ballot box and still hand every electoral vote to that candidate’s opponent.
That is because the agreement commits participating states to awarding their electoral votes to whoever wins the most votes nationwide, regardless of the outcome within their borders.
The compact activates only when its members collectively control at least 270 electoral votes, the majority needed to win the presidency.
Eighteen states and Washington, D.C., have enacted it, accounting for 222 electoral votes. Supporters need another 48.
Tuesday’s elections put that threshold within reach.
Democrats won unified control of state government in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those states hold a combined 50 electoral votes, enough to bring the compact to 272 if all four join.
Arizona holds another 11 electoral votes. Democrats were also projected to gain unified control there, although some legislative races remained uncalled Thursday evening. Adding all five states would push the compact to 283.
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But new Democratic majorities do not guarantee passage, and the party has previously failed to enact the agreement even when it controlled state government.
Michigan Democrats did not join during their 2023-24 trifecta, when they held the governorship and both legislative chambers.
Nevada’s then-Gov. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, vetoed the proposal in 2019, citing concerns about the state’s influence in presidential elections.
Even if enough states sign on, a constitutional showdown could follow.
Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 allows states to appoint presidential electors “in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct.”
Supporters argue that provision gives states the authority to allocate their electoral votes based on the national count.
Opponents point to the Constitution’s Compact Clause, which restricts interstate agreements without congressional consent. Whether this compact requires that approval remains disputed.
Democratic control of Congress would not automatically resolve those questions or sideline President Donald Trump.
The Congressional Research Service has explained that congressional consent to interstate compacts generally requires approval by both chambers and presentation to the president. If that process were required, Trump could veto the legislation. Overriding him would require two-thirds support in each chamber.
Senate Democrats could also face a Republican filibuster under current rules.
The political stakes are clear. George W. Bush won the presidency in 2000 while losing the national popular vote, and Trump did the same in 2016.
If implemented and upheld, the compact would commit a decisive Electoral College majority to the national popular vote winner, changing the presidential contest even in states that never joined.
