Democrat Mary Peltola widened her lead over Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan on Tuesday, tightening the pressure on the two-term incumbent as Alaska’s Senate race remained unsettled a week after Election Day.
Peltola’s advantage grew to 4,250 first-choice votes following the latest release of preliminary results, an increase of roughly 1,700 votes from Monday.
The former congresswoman had 118,926 votes, or 49%, while Sullivan had 114,676 votes, or 47.2%.
Complicating the contest is Dan J. Sullivan, the similarly named challenger Republicans have dubbed Decoy Dan. The retired teacher from Petersburg held 4,027 first-choice votes, or 1.7%, putting him fourth.
His total was nearly as large as the gap separating Peltola from the incumbent. But those votes cannot automatically be assigned to the senator. Whether they ultimately benefit either front-runner depends on how those voters ranked the other candidates.
Republican Gerald Heikes, a perennial candidate from Palmer, was third with 5,318 votes, or 2.2%.
Together, Heikes and Decoy Dan accounted for more than 9,300 first-choice votes, enough to make their supporters’ remaining preferences potentially decisive.
Tens of thousands of early and absentee ballots still await counting, leaving both campaigns with a chance to improve their positions before the state runs its ranked-choice tabulation.
That process is scheduled to begin Nov. 18 for races in which no candidate receives more than 50% of the first-choice vote. Election officials have set Nov. 25 as their target for certification.
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Under Alaska’s system, the lowest-finishing candidate is eliminated, and ballots supporting that candidate move to the next-ranked contender still in the race.
The process continues until a winner is determined. Ballots without another eligible choice stop counting toward the remaining candidates.
That means votes cast for Decoy Dan or Heikes will not necessarily transfer to the Republican incumbent. They could go to Peltola, Sullivan or neither, depending on the rankings.
Both campaigns have cited cast vote records released by the Alaska Division of Elections to make their cases for a path to victory. Those records provide information about rankings on ballots already scanned, but they do not account for the outstanding vote.
Peltola had already expanded her lead during Monday’s smaller results update, finishing that count ahead by 2,517 votes.
Tuesday’s gains gave her a larger cushion, but with more ballots coming and a possible ranked-choice count ahead, the seat remains up for grabs.
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