Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign has declared victory and projected her election as Alaska’s next U.S. senator as first-choice vote totals show her leading incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK) by 4,250 votes.
As of the latest Alaska Division of Elections release covering roughly 84 percent of expected ballots, Peltola holds 118,926 votes, or 49 percent of the vote, to Sullivan’s 114,676, or 47.2 percent. Republican Gerald Heikes has about 5,318 votes (2.2 percent) and independent Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. has about 4,027 (1.7 percent).
Neither leading candidate has reached 50 percent, which has delayed an official race call from state elections officials and leading forecasters.
“Alaskans are fed up with high costs and corruption stemming from DC, and they have made their voices heard: after every vote is counted, it is clear that Mary Peltola will be elected Alaska’s next United States Senator,” Peltola Campaign manager Cheryl Bruce announced in a statement.
“Mary won today’s votes by a margin of 68-30, reflecting major support in key areas from Anchorage and Chevak. This overwhelming margin further strengthens Mary’s path to victory, and Mary is looking forward to continuing her relentless fight to lower costs and put Alaska first in the United States Senate after all votes are counted.”
Bruce issued a follow-up statement after a new update brought the lead to 4,250 votes. “Once again, today’s ballot drop makes it abundantly clear that Mary is on her way to a decisive victory, and there is not a viable path to reelection for Senator Sullivan,” she said.
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Mary Peltola (D) declares victory in Alaska’s US Senate race against Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK) pic.twitter.com/ujGwQOmIEi
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) November 11, 2026
Peltola herself has been more measured in public comments. On election night she did not claim victory, noting that counting would take time and that votes follow trends. “The weather is changing. We have seen it in our lifetimes. And now we are having a political change,” Peltola, who previously served one term as the state’s at-large U.S. Representative, stated on election night.
In a later written update she emphasized that the race is not won until every vote is counted and results are certified, while noting that early and absentee ballots had been trending in her favor at roughly 57 percent.
Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system adds a further step before any official call. If no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes after the final absentee ballots arrive, the Division of Elections will conduct a ranked-choice tabulation on November 18. The lowest finishers are eliminated and their ballots reallocated according to voters’ next preferences until one candidate exceeds 50 percent.
Preliminary analyses of available ranking data have shown mixed results on second-choice transfers, with some partial reviews indicating that Sullivan would gain ground but not enough to overtake Peltola’s current first-choice margin. The final distribution will depend on remaining ballots ahead of state certification scheduled for November 25.
Potential legal challenges to the result could center on the candidacy of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who has been widely referred to as “Decoy Dan.” A bombshell report from the New York Times detailed allegations that Democratic operatives and individuals connected to Peltola’s campaign or the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee worked to recruit a similarly named candidate to draw votes from the incumbent.
The U.S. Department of Justice has issued more than 120 subpoenas in an investigation into possible voter confusion or election interference, while the FBI has conducted interviews. Earlier state challenges to the second Sullivan’s ballot placement were unsuccessful.
Peltola’s campaign has also filed suit seeking records on rejected absentee ballots, and Sullivan’s side has moved to intervene. These issues could lead to further litigation over ballot access, vote validity, or certification if the margin remains narrow.
