Democrats are eyeing a potentially historic upset in Texas as state Rep. James Talarico has opened a commanding early lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in one of the most closely watched Senate races of the 2026 midterm elections.
Early Election Day returns show Talarico leading Paxton by nearly 18 percentage points in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988.
Talarico has received 1,833,075 votes or 58.4% of the ballots counted. Paxton trails with 1,257,902 votes or 40.1%, while independent candidate Ted Brown has collected 48,107 votes or 1.5%.
The numbers represent approximately 30.1% of the expected statewide vote, leaving millions of ballots outstanding and the outcome far from decided.
The early results nevertheless represent a significant development for Democrats, who have spent decades attempting to break the Republican Party’s grip on statewide elections in Texas.
Talarico, a Democratic state representative, entered the contest hoping to capitalize on dissatisfaction with Paxton and convince traditionally Republican voters to consider crossing party lines.
Paxton, meanwhile, has built his political career as one of the country’s most outspoken conservative attorneys general and a prominent ally of President Donald Trump.
His campaign has centered on conservative priorities, including immigration enforcement, border security and opposition to Democratic policies.
The Republican has also faced political challenges stemming from his controversial tenure as attorney general, including his 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House.
Paxton was ultimately acquitted by the Texas Senate and remained in office, but the episode exposed divisions within the state’s Republican establishment.
Democrats have sought to use those controversies to make the Senate contest competitive despite Texas’ longstanding conservative voting record.
The race carries significant national implications as Republicans fight to maintain control of the U.S. Senate during Trump’s second term.
A Democratic victory in Texas would represent an extraordinary political breakthrough and potentially reshape the battle for control of Congress.
Republicans have consistently relied on Texas as a cornerstone of their national electoral coalition, with the state delivering victories for GOP presidential and Senate candidates for decades.
The last Democrat to win a U.S. Senate election in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
Since then, Republicans have successfully defended their Senate seats even during election cycles when Democrats invested heavily in the state.
The early returns also come as prediction markets register a dramatic shift toward Talarico.
Texas Senate market currently gives the Democrat a 96% chance of winning, compared with just 4% for Paxton.
Those figures represent traders’ expectations rather than an official election projection, and they could change as additional results arrive.
Results also show that approximately 7.3 million votes remain outstanding based on its current estimate, meaning the early Democratic advantage could narrow or widen considerably as more counties report.
The geographic distribution of outstanding ballots will be particularly important in determining whether Talarico can sustain his lead.
Republicans traditionally perform strongly across rural Texas, while Democrats depend heavily on large metropolitan areas and their surrounding communities.
For now, the race remains uncalled, and neither candidate has been officially declared the winner.
But with Talarico holding a substantial early advantage, Texas has emerged as one of Election Night’s biggest potential surprises.
