Ken Paxton holds a narrow lead in Texas’ Senate race as Republicans increasingly line up behind him heading into Election Day, according to a new Quantus Insights poll.
The Oct. 26-28 survey of 1,221 likely voters puts Paxton at 48.7% and Democrat James Talarico at 47.6%. Libertarian Ted Brown draws 1.4%, with 2.2% undecided.
Paxton’s Republican support has climbed to 93%, up from 87% in Quantus Insights’ early October survey. His overall lead has increased from 0.5 percentage points to 1.1 points.
The contest remains close. Quantus reports a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 6.4 percentage points for the difference between candidates, putting Paxton’s advantage well within that range.
The survey also finds a potentially favorable turnout picture for the Republican among voters who have yet to cast ballots.
While 59% of Democrats report already voting, just 49% of Republicans and 41% of independents say the same. A quarter of Republicans and independents plan to vote on Election Day.
According to Quantus Insights, the remaining vote leans more Republican than the vote respondents report having already cast.
Overall, 54.3% of likely voters say they have voted, including 51.7% early in person and 2.6% by mail.
Paxton also holds a slim suburban advantage, leading Talarico 49% to 47%. Rural voters favor the Republican 66% to 31%, while urban voters back Talarico 61% to 36%.
Independents remain Paxton’s biggest challenge. They favor Talarico 57% to 33%, widening the Democrat’s advantage among that group from 15 points earlier this month to 24 points.
Independents account for roughly 14% of the electorate, according to the pollster. Talarico also draws 96% of Democrats, up slightly from 95% in the earlier survey.
With both candidates commanding overwhelming support within their own parties, few undecided voters remain.
Quantus Insights’ Oct. 9-11 survey had Paxton at 47.2% and Talarico at 46.7%, with 3.9% undecided. The latest results put the undecided share at just 2.2%.
When those remaining voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, the Senate race barely budged. Nine chose Talarico, eight picked Paxton and 10 remained undecided.
Including those leaners leaves Ken Paxton ahead 49.4% to 48.4%.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott fares better in his race against Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
Abbott leads 50.7% to 45.8%, with Libertarian Pat Dixon drawing 1.2% and 2.3% undecided. His 4.9-point advantage also falls within Quantus Insights’ stated margin of error for the difference between candidates.
Abbott is the only candidate in either contest polling above 50%. Including undecided voters who expressed a preference expands his lead to 51.6% to 46.3%.
The governor runs 2 points ahead of Paxton, while Hinojosa trails Talarico by 1.8 points.
There is limited crossover between the two contests. Quantus finds 47.3% of likely voters backing Republicans in both races and 46% supporting both Democrats.
Another 2.2% plan to vote for Abbott and Talarico, a combination that reaches 6% among independents.
For Paxton, the closing stretch comes down to defending his narrow suburban edge and turning stronger Republican support into votes, while Talarico looks to capitalize on his advantage among independents.
