Ken Paxton holds a razor-thin lead over Democrat James Talarico in a new Trafalgar Group poll, giving the Republican a narrow edge as Texas’ Senate race heads into Election Day.
Paxton draws 48.1% support to Talarico’s 47.5% in the survey of 1,089 likely general election voters. Ted Brown receives 2.4%, with another 2% undecided.
The poll was conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 1 and reports a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Paxton’s 0.6-point advantage falls well within that range.
Older voters are a strong spot for Paxton.
He leads Talarico 56.2% to 39.6% among voters ages 50 to 64 and 57.7% to 37.6% among those 65 and older. Together, those groups account for 63.1% of Trafalgar’s sample.
Those double-digit advantages help offset Talarico’s stronger showing among voters under 50.
Talarico leads 53.8% to 37.8% among respondents ages 18 to 29 and 58.4% to 39.8% among those ages 40 to 49. His widest lead comes among voters ages 30 to 39, who favor him 71.5% to 23%.
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The gender breakdown shows another sharp divide.
Paxton leads among men by 11 points, drawing 53.1% to Talarico’s 42.1%. Talarico leads among women by 8.8 points, 52.4% to 43.6%.
Women make up 52.6% of the survey’s sample, while men account for 47.4%.
Paxton also holds an 18.5-point advantage among white voters, leading 57.2% to 38.7%. Talarico leads among Hispanic voters, 54.9% to 40.1%, and Black voters, 77.6% to 16.1%.
The demographic breakdowns involve smaller samples than the statewide results and carry greater uncertainty.
Trafalgar lists the sample’s party composition as 45.7% Republican, 33.6% Democrat and 20.7% no party or other. The report does not provide candidate support broken down by party.
Neither candidate reaches the 50% mark, and the undecided share alone exceeds the gap between them, underscoring how little separates the two in this survey.
Trafalgar reports a 95% confidence level and a 4.5% response rate.
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