Byron Donalds held on to win Florida’s 2026 gubernatorial election by a narrow margin on Tuesday evening, according to unofficial election-night tallies.
With roughly 90 percent or more of the vote reported in various updates, Donalds and his running mate, Bryan Avila, led Democrat David Jolly and Gwen Graham by fractions of a percentage point — figures in the range of 50.1 percent to 49.7 percent in one state summary — or margins measured in the low tens of thousands of votes amid totals exceeding 7.6 million ballots.
The outcome stands in contrast to recent statewide Republican performances. Incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited, won reelection in 2022 by 19.4 percentage points. In 2024, President Donald Trump carried Florida by 13.1 points. Republicans entered 2026 with a registration advantage of approximately 1.5 million voters over Democrats.
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Decision Desk HQ projects Byron Donalds wins the FL Governor General Election#DecisionMade: 8:28 PM EST
Follow live results here: https://t.co/kBjHEsIg6m pic.twitter.com/BCbRqkHmFr
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2026
Donalds, a three-term congressman from Southwest Florida’s 19th District, secured the Republican nomination in August with 47.8 percent of the primary vote in a multi-candidate field. He received President Trump’s endorsement early and maintained a substantial fundraising edge, with combined campaign and political-committee receipts reported in the $130–170 million range against far lower totals for Jolly.
Late public polls consistently showed Donalds ahead, though by modest single-digit margins: a University of North Florida survey put him at 49 percent to 47 percent, Stetson University at 51–45, and other October surveys in the 2-to-6-point range. Forecasters rated the race Lean Republican or similar in the final weeks.
Jolly, a former Republican U.S. representative from the Tampa Bay area who left the party in 2018, registered as a Democrat in 2025 and won his primary with 61 percent.
The result is also narrower than the performance of Donalds’ successor in the open 19th Congressional District race. Republican Jim Schwartzel defeated Democrat Victor Arias, who was backed by both President Trump and Governor Ron DeSantis, by roughly 18 points in that race.
Elsewhere in the state, the U.S. Senate special election between Incumbent Senator Ashley Moody narrowly defeated Democrat challenger Angie Nixon, but by a slim margin. Full certification of the gubernatorial results will follow standard canvass and any required recount procedures under state law.
