Rep. Jim Jordan has emerged as the betting favorite to lead House Republicans as the party prepares to choose its next leader following last week’s midterm losses.
The Ohio Republican held a commanding advantage on prediction market Kalshi shortly after noon Tuesday, with traders giving him a 72.3% chance of becoming House minority leader in the 120th Congress.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, his rival for the job, stood at 21% in the same 12:09 p.m. snapshot.
The contest comes after Speaker Mike Johnson announced he would not seek to lead Republicans in the next Congress, setting up a showdown over who will guide the party through its return to the minority.
Republicans were scheduled to select their leader by secret ballot Tuesday. The winner will take charge of the conference when Democrats assume control of the House in January.
Jordan’s market advantage had widened considerably over the past month. The Kalshi chart showed him below 30% in mid-October before climbing sharply around the election. Nearly $196,000 had been traded across the market.
The odds reflect traders’ expectations. Republican lawmakers will decide the outcome behind closed doors.
Screenshot/Kalshi
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Jordan, the House Judiciary Committee chairman, has pitched his experience battling Democrats and defending President Donald Trump as an asset heading into the next Congress.
In a letter announcing his candidacy, Jordan warned that Democrats would launch investigations across the administration and argued that Republicans need a coordinated strategy to respond. He also called for the party to restore voters’ confidence by presenting clear policy alternatives.
His supporters have pushed for a change in leadership after the election defeat, an argument that puts Scalise’s position as the current No. 2 House Republican under scrutiny.
Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, has emphasized his experience unifying the conference and his goal of winning back the majority. His case rests on preparing Republicans for both legislative fights and oversight battles while rebuilding their electoral strength.
The matchup revives a rivalry that played out during the chaotic 2023 race to replace ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Scalise initially defeated Jordan for the Republican nomination but withdrew before facing a House floor vote. Jordan later became the nominee but failed to secure the speakership on three floor ballots.
Republicans ultimately rallied behind Johnson.
Now Jordan and Scalise are seeking another chance at the conference’s top job, with the winner facing the task of countering the Democratic majority and positioning Republicans to reclaim the House in 2028.
