Republican Michele Tafoya is within striking distance in Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll showing Democrat Peggy Flanagan ahead by fewer than four percentage points.
The Quantus Insights survey found Flanagan leading Michele Tafoya 48.2% to 44.4%, a 3.8-point advantage. Another 4.3% of likely voters remain undecided.
When voters leaning toward one of the candidates are included, Flanagan’s lead shifts slightly to 48.9% against Tafoya’s 45.4%.
The poll gives Republicans a reason for optimism in a state where the party has not won a statewide election since 2006. Minnesota nevertheless remains an uphill climb for the GOP, with The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rating the race “Likely Democratic.”
There may not be many movable voters left. Quantus Insights found that 88.6% of respondents supporting a candidate said they had definitely made up their minds, leaving both campaigns with a limited pool of persuadable voters.
The race features a pronounced gender divide. Flanagan leads women 54% to 40%, while Tafoya holds a 50% to 41% advantage among men.
Age is another major dividing line. Flanagan performs especially well among younger Minnesotans, including a commanding 63% to 34% lead among voters between 30 and 44. Tafoya turns the numbers around among middle-aged voters, leading those between 45 and 64 by 54% to 38%. The Republican also holds a narrow advantage among voters 65 and older.
The geographic split is similarly stark. Flanagan dominates among urban voters, while Tafoya holds a substantial lead in rural Minnesota.
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Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, is trying to turn voter anger over Minnesota’s sprawling public-assistance fraud scandals into a Republican breakthrough. Flanagan has served as lieutenant governor throughout Gov. Tim Walz’s administration, giving Tafoya an opening to make government oversight and accountability central issues in the campaign.
Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination in August after defeating Rep. Angie Craig, who ran as the more moderate candidate in the primary. Tafoya emerged from a crowded Republican field to claim her party’s nomination.
The two candidates are competing to succeed Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, who announced in 2025 that she would not seek another term.
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Flanagan’s personal rating is narrowly positive, with 50% viewing her favorably and 45.9% unfavorably. Tafoya is almost perfectly even, with 42.4% favorable and 42% unfavorable.
Tafoya’s lower name recognition could give her room to improve, but it also leaves her campaign with the job of defining the former broadcaster before Democrats do it for her.
Quantus surveyed 720 likely Minnesota voters. The survey had an effective sample of 545 and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
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