Republican Sen. Mike Rounds rolled to reelection in South Dakota, defeating independent challenger Brian Bengs by roughly 21 points in the reported count and outperforming polling averages.
The Associated Press called the race Tuesday night, securing a third six-year term for Rounds.
Results shared by Quantus Insights’ Jason Corley showed the Republican ahead 60.5% to 39.5%, with 99% of expected votes counted. Rounds had collected 184,584 votes to Bengs’ 120,502.
That was a considerably wider gap than the 51%-41% polling average Corley highlighted in a post-election assessment. Rounds’ reported margin exceeded that 10-point advantage by approximately 11 percentage points.
“Mike Rounds was among the Senate Republicans who outperformed polling expectations,” Corley wrote on X.
Quantus Insights had spotted a much larger Republican advantage in its October survey.
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According to Corley, the firm’s Oct. 17-19 poll put Rounds ahead 57.2% to 36.5%, a 20.7-point margin. With voters leaning toward a candidate included, Rounds led 59.4% to 37.3%, a 22.1-point spread.
Both margins closely tracked the roughly 21-point gap in the results Corley shared. The survey’s initial margin was about three-tenths of a percentage point away, while the margin including leaners was about 1.1 points higher.
The polling average Corley cited had correctly put Rounds ahead. Quantus’ survey came substantially closer to capturing the size of his lead.
Rounds has represented South Dakota in the Senate since 2015, following two terms as governor from 2003 to 2011.
Bengs ran as an independent after challenging Republican Sen. John Thune as a Democrat in 2022.
With some votes still outstanding in the tally Corley shared, the exact margin remained subject to change. But Rounds had already locked down another term, and Quantus’ October numbers offered a close preview of his commanding advantage.
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