Russian President Vladimir Putin could test NATO’s resolve with a limited attack on one of the alliance’s member nations as soon as this fall, according to a new U.S. intelligence assessment.
The potential move could range from a major cyberattack to direct military action, including a possible ground incursion, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.
The warning comes as questions swirl around U.S. weapons stockpiles and whether years of military aid to Ukraine have strained America’s ability to respond to another major conflict.
The Journal reported that U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that Russia may be willing to probe NATO’s defenses despite being tied down in Ukraine.
“The assessments, described by U.S. officials, come amid a shortfall in certain critical munitions that the military would need to confront Russia or China in a potential future war.
The U.S. has severely degraded its stockpile of these weapons because of transfers to Ukraine after Russia’s invasion, as well as the U.S. conflict with Iran.”
President Donald Trump has rejected reports that the United States is running dangerously low on key weapons and has vowed to identify Pentagon officials leaking claims about depleted stockpiles.
Still, the report raises fresh concerns about whether Washington would be prepared to respond quickly if Moscow moved against a NATO ally.
U.S. officials reportedly believe the military could face serious resource challenges if Russia carried out a limited attack designed to force the alliance into a difficult decision.
“The question mark is how the United States would respond in that case,” Heather Conley, a senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute, told the Journal.
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Conley said Putin may see an opportunity to test whether NATO’s mutual defense commitments are as strong in practice as they are on paper.
“It has always been a goal to challenge the credibility of NATO and to separate the United States from its allies,” Conley said.
JUST IN: 🇷🇺🇪🇺 Putin Could Put NATO to the Test Within Years, CIA Warns
U.S. intelligence believes Vladimir Putin could test NATO’s resolve within the next few years, potentially through cyberattacks, covert operations or even a limited military incursion into NATO territory.… pic.twitter.com/MR0xhNcMhe
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For years, U.S. intelligence officials largely believed Russia would avoid opening another front while its forces remained heavily committed in Ukraine.
That calculation may now be changing.
According to the Journal, some officials increasingly believe Putin could be willing to take a smaller, calculated risk against a NATO country without launching a full-scale war.
Such a move could be aimed less at territorial conquest and more at exposing cracks inside the alliance, particularly if member nations hesitated over how aggressively to respond.
The possibility comes at a politically sensitive moment for NATO, with Trump continuing to pressure European allies to spend more on their own defense instead of relying heavily on American taxpayers and military power.
If the intelligence assessment proves accurate, the coming months could present one of the most serious tests yet of whether Europe is prepared to defend itself against Russian aggression without assuming Washington will carry the entire burden.
