California voters headed to the polls Tuesday to begin choosing a successor to Gov. Gavin Newsom, and the biggest headline of the night was the surprisingly strong performance by Republican Steve Hilton, who emerged as the early frontrunner in the crowded race. While millions of ballots remain uncounted and final results could take days or even weeks, Hilton and former Biden administration official Xavier Becerra appear headed for a November showdown.
The June 2 election was California’s “top-two” primary, meaning all candidates, regardless of party, appeared on the same ballot and the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election. That setup created significant uncertainty because Democrats entered the race with a crowded field, raising concerns that liberal voters would split their support among multiple candidates.
As of Wednesday morning, Hilton was leading with roughly 28% of the vote, while Becerra sat in second place at approximately 25%. Billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer was running third at just under 20%, leaving him outside the projected runoff despite spending heavily on the race. Several other prominent Democrats, including former Rep. Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, failed to gain enough traction and have effectively been eliminated from contention.
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Hilton’s strong showing immediately became one of the biggest stories of election night. The former Fox News host and adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron entered the race as an outsider candidate. Backed by President Donald Trump, Hilton centered his campaign on attacks against California’s Democratic leadership, focusing on homelessness, housing costs, crime concerns, regulations, and the state’s high cost of living. His message appeared to resonate with voters frustrated by California’s ongoing affordability crisis.
Becerra’s path to second place was notable as well. The former California attorney general and former Health and Human Services secretary under former President Joe Biden surged late in the campaign. Despite entering the race without the overwhelming support many expected from establishment Democrats, Becerra managed to consolidate enough support to position himself for November. If elected, he would become California’s first Latino governor.
One major takeaway from election night is the deep division within California’s Democratic Party. The race exposed a split between establishment Democrats who rallied around Becerra and progressive voters attracted to Steyer’s message. That division likely helped Hilton finish first and gave Republicans a significant boost heading into the fall campaign.
The election is drawing national attention because California remains the nation’s largest state economy, with nearly 40 million residents and a gross state product exceeding $4 trillion. The next governor will face enormous challenges, including housing affordability, homelessness, water management, wildfire preparedness, and insurance market instability. These issues dominated voter concerns throughout the campaign.
Another factor making the race unusual is California’s lengthy ballot-counting process. State law allows officials to continue counting valid mail ballots that arrive after Election Day if they are postmarked on time. Because of that, analysts caution that the margins could still shift in the coming days. However, current projections strongly suggest Hilton and Becerra will advance to the November general election.
Beyond the governor’s race, voters also cast ballots in numerous statewide contests and congressional races that could influence the balance of power in Washington. California’s new congressional maps and several competitive House districts are expected to become major battlegrounds later this year.
For now, the biggest winner from election night appears to be Hilton, who exceeded many expectations and demonstrated that Republicans may have a stronger foothold in California than many political observers anticipated. Democrats remain favored statewide, but Tuesday’s results suggest the November contest could be more competitive than originally expected.
