Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton heads into Tuesday’s Republican Senate runoff with a sizable lead over Sen. John Cornyn, according to a new survey from Quantus Insights.
The polling firm’s final survey of the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff found Paxton taking 52.7% support among likely GOP runoff voters, compared to 43.4% for Cornyn. Another 3.9% remained undecided ahead of the May 26 election.
The survey was conducted May 21-23 among 1,018 likely Republican runoff voters using mobile-cell SMS outreach and a modeled Republican runoff electorate. Quantus said the effective sample size was 936, with a weighted margin of error of roughly plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The runoff marks a dramatic shift from March’s initial primary, when Cornyn narrowly finished ahead of Paxton by 1.5 points to force the two into a head-to-head showdown.
According to the memo, Paxton’s advantage stretches across much of the Republican electorate. The attorney general leads among men, women, rural voters, suburban voters and Republicans without four-year college degrees. The survey also found him ahead in most of Texas’ major media markets.
Cornyn’s strongest support comes from more urban and highly educated Republicans, particularly graduate-school voters and urban residents, where the longtime senator either leads or runs close to even. But the memo argues those gains are not enough to overcome Paxton’s broader coalition in the runoff electorate.
The biggest development in the race’s closing days was President Donald Trump endorsing Paxton on May 19.
According to the survey, 87.8% of voters said they were aware of Trump’s endorsement, while just 12.3% said they had not heard about it.
Still, the poll suggests most Republicans had already made up their minds before Trump weighed in. A majority of respondents (58.9%) said the endorsement did not affect their vote.
Among voters who said it did matter, however, the advantage tilted toward Paxton. The survey found 24.8% said Trump’s backing made them more likely to support Paxton, while 15.4% said it pushed them toward Cornyn.
“Put another way, among voters who said the endorsement moved them one way or the other, 61.7% moved toward Paxton, compared with 38.3% toward Cornyn,” Quantus writes.
The survey also offered a snapshot of the Republican runoff electorate’s ideological makeup. According to Quantus, 40.9% identified as traditional or conservative Republicans, while 23.5% described themselves as Trump-MAGA Republicans. Another 14.7% identified as America First Republicans, while 12.1% called themselves moderates.
Trump’s standing with those voters remains strong. The poll found 81.7% approve of the president’s job performance, including 61.3% who said they strongly approve.
Quantus argued Cornyn’s best chance would depend on a higher-turnout Election Day electorate that is more urban, establishment-oriented, and less receptive to Paxton’s support among Trump-aligned Republicans.
“The March primary showed Cornyn could still command a large share of the Republican electorate,” the memo states. “But the runoff environment is different. The field has narrowed. The electorate is smaller. And the closing week has moved through terrain more favorable to Paxton.”
“On the eve of Election Day, the Quantus Insights data point to a Paxton-favored race.”
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